Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 20.051036 23.292112 27.168100 32.229013 38.793666 47.217081 5.918975e+01
2025-02-09 15.555908 19.151064 23.858064 30.703666 40.844805 56.151604 8.300467e+01
2025-02-16 13.805420 17.707983 23.164840 31.786924 46.037895 70.935434 1.250673e+02
2025-02-23 12.294196 16.224342 21.981389 31.651548 49.059640 83.456132 1.751297e+02
2025-03-02 11.144680 15.042519 20.970049 31.446264 51.760022 96.765594 2.452258e+02
2025-03-09 10.356114 14.268923 20.429149 31.857764 55.716508 115.405078 3.704342e+02
2025-03-16 9.421032 13.149485 19.150114 30.639125 55.845350 124.610453 4.873287e+02
2025-03-23 8.825418 12.496752 18.553367 30.575885 58.545492 143.546118 7.508080e+02
2025-03-30 8.091628 11.548925 17.331248 29.045449 57.238700 148.725843 9.577156e+02
2025-04-06 7.411833 10.635550 16.077698 27.257862 54.810098 148.535454 1.131765e+03
2025-04-13 6.871047 9.914337 15.101802 25.915597 53.241857 151.100604 1.413556e+03
2025-04-20 7.026747 10.370543 16.301539 29.448827 66.516366 235.832250 1.030716e+04
2025-04-27 6.877979 10.309462 16.566689 31.061601 75.456287 325.306462 5.534775e+09
2025-05-04 6.407534 9.646620 15.599891 29.568227 73.423652 337.474901 NaN
2025-05-11 6.238107 9.507095 15.649715 30.595183 81.034510 456.689160 NaN
2025-05-18 5.974374 9.175383 15.275074 30.467054 84.265077 553.013320 NaN
2025-05-25 5.728609 8.859029 14.900319 30.272875 87.232117 670.419505 NaN
2025-06-01 5.552411 8.659212 14.748752 30.662090 93.137745 897.912585 NaN
2025-06-08 5.267226 8.236884 14.087064 29.509069 91.242405 956.141987 NaN
2025-06-15 5.088407 8.005958 13.818987 29.449203 94.878170 1225.427376 NaN
2025-06-22 4.818235 7.586640 13.110316 27.999470 90.682586 1205.134228 NaN
2025-06-29 4.545439 7.151515 12.343747 26.303780 84.732000 1093.520218 NaN
2025-07-06 4.318904 6.796921 11.736476 25.028788 80.774059 1052.901227 NaN